Decision-making in Russia’s Foreign Policy Modelling Russia’s Decision-Making with reference to Ukraine and Moldova (2004-2018)

Abstract

There is a substantial body of literature on Russian foreign policy; however, the decision-making aspect remains comparatively less explored. The ambition of this research developed in two directions; on a practical level, it contributes to knowledge on Russia’s foreign policy decision-making and, on a conceptual plane, to scholarship by way of theory development, underpinning academic research on decision-making in foreign policy. Russia’s decision-making was first viewed through the prism of the Rational Actor Model and Incrementalism; however, their utility was found to be limited. Blended models also did not figure strongly. Through the prism of author’s proposed model of Strategic Incrementalism and its principles, this research demonstrates that Russia’s foreign-policy decision-making is far from a case of ‘muddling through,’ it retains a long-term purposefulness, and that its incremental decisions are guided by farsightedness. The simplicity and general applicability of the model potentially suggest its broader utility.