Leaving Office: The U.S. Senator’s Representation, Ideological Adoption, and Strategic Retirement

Abstract

This study focuses on the incumbent senator’s ideological congruence causing strategic retirement in the United States. The extent of ideological congruence between a senator and her constituency can be interpreted as the degree of electoral vulnerability. Senators out of steps with constituents are more likely than those toeing the line with constituents’ preferences to choose voluntary retirement over being risk losing the general election. This study finds that senators with legislative records of relatively ideological incongruence to her state ideology will be more likely to decide to retire strategically.