Modeling Chinese Domestic Cereal Flow due to Stock and Economic Gradient

Abstract

To evaluate vulnerability of cereal transportation and stocks estimated from the land use and supply-demand on cereal in China, two types of numerical models (Non-market type and Market type) were developed and applied to this topic. Input data were 20km-cell base. Target year was around 1995. In case of no cereal transportation, severe cereal shortage appeared in urban regions. In the non-market-type model, cereal was transported from grid-cells with positive cereal stocks to grid-cells with the negative in proportion to the ratio of their GDP. In the market-type model, each grid cell absorbed cereal from surrounding cells in proportion to its GDP (economic potential). In the non-market-type model, regional imbalances of cereal stocks were decreased by the cereal transportation. However, the result in the market-type model showed some risk of decreasing cereal stocks in hinterlands of productive regions and in urban regions far from productive regions, especially coastal zone in the south China, because a quick accumulation of cereal in the coastal municipalities enlarged such regional imbalances.