21RST CENTURY: “The Game against Nature”

Abstract

When a decision-maker faces a choice between alternatives of action in a situation of uncertainty, one speaks of a “game against Nature” when he/she faces no interaction with another player or group. In the process of global warming, mankind is the one player facing two alternatives: resilience or precaution. Not knowing fully the consequences of the increase in the emission of greenhouse gases on climate change or the implications of climate change for biological and social system, what action to take? If there were a global benevolent rule, he/she may decide to avoid the worst outcome. But global ecological policy-making requires the coordination among a large number of players, which open up the possibility of reneging as well as carries heavy transaction costs.