Problem of “Dinosauring” of European Union and Mapping of Its Future

Abstract

Numerous national and international institutions perform exercises for future prediction. Generally, their “products” are predicting optimistic, politically correct and logic outcome, that is far from reality. European Union (EU) planners generally like to limit themselves on short-term (not longer than ten years) future predictions that seems to be more technical improvements rather than on strategic reorganization of the EU in that changing world. However European Union, being in crisis need to develop the long-term strategy for changes. One of the weak points of EU existence is the constant will to avoid the decision to make a choice.

The popular European vision of its future can be called The Davos World - simple scenario based of the economic benefits, predicting that the driving force for ruling the world will be the endless economic interest. However, EU will hardly implement this idea because of current and ongoing problems. EU is design to adopt itself to changing realities rather to create realities itself. The popular future scenarios mentioned: Pax Americana, “The union of Dragoon and Bear”, The New Caliphate, The World of Fear, BRIC, The New Messiah, do not foresee long time successful future for EU. The possibilities of post-EU Europe: New Kalmar Union, New Switzerland, New Lithuanian–Polish Commonwealth, Fourth Rome are discussed.