The Consequences of Ukraine-Russia Crisis: The Case of International Trade and Prices’ Behavior in Egypt

Abstract

This research aims to measure the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflicts on the international trade and thus on the prices’ behavior in Egypt. The purpose of this paper is to investigate and observe prices’ behavior during the ongoing crisis. The literature review defined the real determinant of prices and what are the factors affecting prices in the market. This research is quantitative research with a descriptive then correlational research design and the type of investigation is non-contrived research. Observational method and questionnaire are used in data collection gathering a number of quantitative data. The questionnaires are to be directed to expert respondents whether consumers or wholesale merchants via emails or online questionnaire. The questionnaire focuses on the defining the prices’ behavior and level before, after and during the war crisis. The measuring scale used is ratio scale. The IBM SPSS Statistics 26 software was used to analyze the questionnaire responses collected from respondents. Descriptive analysis section of all questionnaire responses, followed by hypothesis testing performed to answer the research questions.

This paper shows that the anticipated shortage of supply in strategic goods and Ukraine-Russia War significantly affect prices behavior. In addition, the Ukraine-Russia war has a moderating effect on the prices’ behavior in Egypt in relation to the fear of supply shortage.

Future researches are recommended to analyze the macro and micro effects of the Russia-Ukraine war over longer time horizons; the increase in pricing in the Egyptian market is thought to be caused by a wide range of factors that are not all covered in this study. It is also advised that future researchers employ a large sample size for sake of generalization.