Development Levels Shaping Global Migration Trends

Abstract

According to estimates by the United Nations' International Organization for Migration, in 2020 the global count of international migrants reached 281 million, nearly doubling the estimate from 1990. While a significant portion of emigration can be attributed to wars and conflicts, less developed countries have witnessed a surge in outward migration over the past few decades, extending beyond forced emigration. Among these migrants there is a considerable number of young, skilled, and educated individuals, whose departure has unfortunate effects on their countries of origin, impacting economic progress and demographics. The level of country development significantly influences migration, as migrants often move from less developed to more developed countries in search of better living conditions and more opportunities.

This paper aims to identify the primary determinants of global migration movement between years 1990 and 2022, with a focus on evaluating the impact of country development level disparities on these flows. According to our static and dynamic estimation results the level of development is a significant driver of emigration while higher GDP per capita is associated with lower net emigration. These results imply that policies aimed at reducing migration pressures should focus on fostering economic development and increasing GDP per capita in low-income countries.