Modeling Chinese Domestic Cereal Flow due to Stock and Economic Gradient

Toshiaki Ichinose, Kai Liu

Abstract


To evaluate vulnerability of cereal transportation and stocks estimated from the land use and supply-demand on cereal in China, two types of numerical models (Non-market type and Market type) were developed and applied to this topic. Input data were 20km-cell base. Target year was around 1995. In case of no cereal transportation, severe cereal shortage appeared in urban regions. In the non-market-type model, cereal was transported from grid-cells with positive cereal stocks to grid-cells with the negative in proportion to the ratio of their GDP. In the market-type model, each grid cell absorbed cereal from surrounding cells in proportion to its GDP (economic potential). In the non-market-type model, regional imbalances of cereal stocks were decreased by the cereal transportation. However, the result in the market-type model showed some risk of decreasing cereal stocks in hinterlands of productive regions and in urban regions far from productive regions, especially coastal zone in the south China, because a quick accumulation of cereal in the coastal municipalities enlarged such regional imbalances.


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.11114/ijsss.v5i10.2508

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International Journal of Social Science Studies   ISSN 2324-8033 (Print)   ISSN 2324-8041 (Online)

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