National Democratic Congress Parliamentary Primaries in the Tamale Central Constituency: A Delegate-Based Electoral Survey Analysis

Abstract

The Tamale Central Constituency, a key political and commercial hub in Ghana’s Northern Region, is preparing for a parliamentary primary of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) following the passing of its sitting Member of Parliament (MP) on August 6, 2025. Several aspirants, including Dr. Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahaman, Prof. Alidu Seidu, Dr. Seidu Fiter, Lawyer Abdul Hanan Gundadow, Lawyer Abdul Rauf, Hajia Shamima Yakubu, and Alhassan Osman Gomda, have emerged as potential contenders for the September 6, 2025, internal primary election. This paper analyses delegate preferences, perceptions of candidate strength, and the factors likely to influence delegate choice. A survey of 344 delegates was conducted to determine support levels for aspirants and the factors likely to influence their choice. The findings suggest that delegate decision-making is structured around three latent dimensions, and these are loyalty and service (grassroots embeddedness, party service), campaign resources (financial/logistical support), and charisma and appeal (youth appeal, communication). While grassroots embeddedness remains critical, the role of financial capacity and youth appeal cannot be discounted. Interestingly, public speaking ability, often emphasised in media campaigns, was statistically insignificant, reflecting that internal party elections rely more on patron-client networks than on rhetorical skills. In conclusion, the findings highlight the political economy of delegate decision-making in the Tamale Central constituency and suggest that an aspirant who integrates grassroots engagement, party loyalty, and campaign capacity is best positioned to secure the nomination. Based on this conclusion, the paper argues for a transparent internal primary election and merit-based selection to strengthen the NDC’s competitiveness in the Tamale Central constituency.