The Theory of Agricultural Price Bubble & Price Crash in Global Economy

M.B. Dastagiri, L. Bhavigna

Abstract


Agricultural prices play greater role in living Economics. Since many decades’ farmers faced declining agricultural prices and low prices in developing countries. Therefore, in these countries agricultural price policies are under closer appraisal.  Government and policy makers worry about inflation. Economic precision is required in determining prices. This understanding led to conception of the study. The specific objectives are to review various agricultural price theories, research evidences and construct the theory of agricultural price bubble and crash and their effect on macro economy and suggest measures to improve. The study reviews various agricultural price theories, concepts, policies, research gaps and do meta-analysis and formulated the theory of Agricultural prices bubble and price crash. Since 1950, many development economists and practitioners prophesy in developing countries is that low agricultural commodities prices discourage poverty alleviation. Many countries are unable to make successful pricing policies due to there is not enough operative methodological and theoretical support for decision-making. According to the economic theory of cooperativism, the entities come closer to the pecking order theory. Unexpected changes and changes in regulations can have significant impact on the profitability of farming activities. “Demand channel" is the crucial factor in elucidation of commodity price growth. Future prices moments in agriculture have fat-tailed distributions and display quick and unpredicted price jumps. World Trade Organization study highlights the importance of strengthening multilateral disciplines on both import and export trade interventions to food price fluctuations to reduce beggar-thy-neighbor unilateral trade policy. The theory of NAFTA regionalism did not lead to regionalization and not increasing share of intraregional international trade. In EU countries land rents in modern agriculture causing upward trend in agricultural land prices. Information friction, agricultural supports, agricultural price & trade policies, agricultural price transmission are responsible price fluctuations. In economic theory, asymmetric price transmission has been the subject of considerable attention in agricultural gaps. Selection of forecasting models are based on chaos theory. Chaos in agricultural wholesale price data provides a good theoretical basis for selecting forecasting models. This theory can be applied to agricultural prices forecasting. Novelties in agricultural products fluctuations research offer scientific basis in planning of agricultural production.


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.11114/aef.v6i5.4464

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Applied Economics and Finance    ISSN 2332-7294 (Print)   ISSN 2332-7308 (Online)

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